Generally, I really like this post and what it's trying to get at, but I am am inveterate quibbler, so quibble I shall.
"This worries me – it seems like American politics are moving to mirror Latin American politics (see the Brian Winter tweet below), complete with polarization, personality cults, and huge pendulum swings."
I wonder how correct this is.
First, "huge pendulum swings"---I'm not sure if you mean in policy specifically (i.e. having extreme candidates/parties) or if you mean swings in political power/electoral support. Because the former may be true, but the latter certainly isn't. Our most recent elections have all been razor-thin, and often feature divided or near-divided government. Our parties seem to have tried to deal with this by enforcing more and more intra-party consensus, but this has made them more extreme and less palatable. I wonder if this is a situation of a reinforcing trend or a fever waiting to break.
Second, personality cults. I think there is a personality cult: Trump's. And it doesn't seem like anyone else has been particularly successful in the way he has. I also wonder whether the difference between Trump, Obama, and Reagan has less to do with the difference in cultist qualities of their followers or in their reactions to those qualities (unease v. enjoyment). I also also wonder whether the internet's splintering qualities will make it harder and harder to bring more people under one personality. But that is high theory.
Third, polarization. I believe this trend peaked several years ago and is actually in the process of reversing (perhaps I can grab some sources for this claim).
Thanks for engaging with the post! I think I'm worried a bit about what you say, about intra-party consensus and rendering the parties "more extreme and less palatable." I hope you're right that it's a fever waiting to break.
I do think you're right that the personality cult may be a blip. It's pretty clear that no one else in the Trump coalition has the kind of charisma that he does. I wonder what the effect of an increasing fragmentation of our media environment will be. I think about this with pop culture, too. Will there even be shared mass celebrity culture, political or otherwise, in 50 years?
Agree that polarization is a complicated topic. And we're seeing more horseshoe politics these days. As Alex Tabarrok and other upset right-wingers on Twitter have pointed out, a lot of Trump's economic plan would have been associated with the left, or with import-substitution-industrialization Latin American leftists in the Peronist vein. Strange times! Thanks for reading.
Generally, I really like this post and what it's trying to get at, but I am am inveterate quibbler, so quibble I shall.
"This worries me – it seems like American politics are moving to mirror Latin American politics (see the Brian Winter tweet below), complete with polarization, personality cults, and huge pendulum swings."
I wonder how correct this is.
First, "huge pendulum swings"---I'm not sure if you mean in policy specifically (i.e. having extreme candidates/parties) or if you mean swings in political power/electoral support. Because the former may be true, but the latter certainly isn't. Our most recent elections have all been razor-thin, and often feature divided or near-divided government. Our parties seem to have tried to deal with this by enforcing more and more intra-party consensus, but this has made them more extreme and less palatable. I wonder if this is a situation of a reinforcing trend or a fever waiting to break.
Second, personality cults. I think there is a personality cult: Trump's. And it doesn't seem like anyone else has been particularly successful in the way he has. I also wonder whether the difference between Trump, Obama, and Reagan has less to do with the difference in cultist qualities of their followers or in their reactions to those qualities (unease v. enjoyment). I also also wonder whether the internet's splintering qualities will make it harder and harder to bring more people under one personality. But that is high theory.
Third, polarization. I believe this trend peaked several years ago and is actually in the process of reversing (perhaps I can grab some sources for this claim).
Such are my quibbles. Excellent post.
Thanks for engaging with the post! I think I'm worried a bit about what you say, about intra-party consensus and rendering the parties "more extreme and less palatable." I hope you're right that it's a fever waiting to break.
I do think you're right that the personality cult may be a blip. It's pretty clear that no one else in the Trump coalition has the kind of charisma that he does. I wonder what the effect of an increasing fragmentation of our media environment will be. I think about this with pop culture, too. Will there even be shared mass celebrity culture, political or otherwise, in 50 years?
Agree that polarization is a complicated topic. And we're seeing more horseshoe politics these days. As Alex Tabarrok and other upset right-wingers on Twitter have pointed out, a lot of Trump's economic plan would have been associated with the left, or with import-substitution-industrialization Latin American leftists in the Peronist vein. Strange times! Thanks for reading.
Matt Y consistently argues that policy matters